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美国现货生猪价格继续保持高位

互联网 2013-09-24 08:33:14 |

[导读]   It's mid-September and US Lean hogs are hovering around 93 /lb. A year ago they were 68 /lb. That's...

  It's mid-September and US Lean hogs are hovering around 93 /lb. A year ago they were 68 /lb. That's an astonishing 25 /lb. or at least $50/head to the better year over year. Huge differenceover $100 million a week better for the industry. It's what happens when you are marketing fewer hogs year over year. Last week the US marketed 2,172,000 a year ago 2,427,000.


  九月中旬的美国瘦肉型生猪价格在93美分/磅上下浮动。去年同期的价格在68美分/磅。这比去年同期大大增长了25美分/磅,即至少增长了50美元/头。巨大的变化给整个养猪行业带来一周超过1亿美元的增收。当市场上的出栏生猪比去年同期有所减少时,价格就会上涨。上周,美国市场上出栏生猪2,172,000头。去年同期,出栏2,427,000头。


  We took many arrows last winter and spring for saying there was no Sow herd expansion underway. It appeared pundit sheep herd knowledge kept saying there was expansion. We didn't agree. It appears either we knew what the industry was doing or were lucky, but the fact is there wasn't expansion.


  去年年底及今年年初,我们说现在没有母猪群扩张,遭到了许多反对。那些似乎只会养羊的权威们,一直在说存在扩群。我们不赞同这个观点。现在看来,要么是我们真正了解这个行业,要么是我们够幸运。不过,事实是没有扩群存在。


  Expansion happening was like an urban myth (rural myth) perception but no reality. We couldn't see it, corn a year ago was around $8.00 a bushel (many thinking it was going to $10), a year ago early weans about $8.00, feeder pigs $18.00, hog to corn ration 9.7, market hogs were about $40.00 under cost of production. Obviously an ideal recipe for expansion? Wasn't happening despite what the tenured“Chicken Little”economists predicted from their cubicles. Never has there been expansion in such dire financial circumstances and never will be. The idea that if it was happening was wrong.


  母猪群的扩张只是一个传说,事实并不存在。我们没看出有扩群的可能。一年前,玉米价格大约每蒲式耳8.00美元(许多人以为会到每蒲式耳10美元),断奶小猪的价格大约每头8.00美元,育肥猪价格在每头18.00美元,猪粮比价(玉米)为9.7。出栏生猪价格约每头40.00美元,低于生产成本。显然,扩群只是一种理想状态。无论那些胆小的经济学家们在办公室里怎么预测,这都不会发生。像这样财政状况如此严峻的时候,从来没有发生过扩群,以后也永远不会发生。存在扩群的想法是错误的。


  Now we are benefiting from the tight supply of hogs and good domestic and export demand for pork. It's not magic it's the law of economics.


  现在,我们从生猪供应紧张和国内以及出口对猪肉需求的增长中受益。这不是魔法,这是经济学规律。



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